Coronavirus dynamics, infections and preventive interventions using fractional-calculus analysis

In this research work, we construct an epidemic model to understand COVID-19 transmission vaccination and therapy considerations. The model's equilibria were examined, and the reproduction parameter was calculated via a next-generation matrix method, symbolized by R0. We have shown that the infection-free steady state of our system is locally asymptotically stable for R0 < 1. Also, the local asymptotic stability of the endemic steady state has been established for R0 > 1. We have used a partial rank correlation coefficient method for sensitivity analysis of the threshold parameter R0. The contribution of vaccination to the threshold parameter is explored through graphical results. In addition to this, the uniqueness and existence of the solution to the postulated model of COVID-19 infection is shown. We ran various simulations of the proposed COVID-19 dynamics with varied input parameters to scrutinize the complex dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We illustrated the variation in the dynamical behavior of the system with different values of the input parameters. The key factors of the system are visualized for the public health officials for the control of the infection. © 2023 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.

Risk Factors and a Novel Score (CARI-65) Predicting Mortality in COVID-19 Patients

Purpose: The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 infection resulted in an exponential increase in hospitalizations and mortality. We aimed to explore the determinants of mortality and formulate a score that can predict mortality in patients hospitalized due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, 1024 COVID-19 patients hospitalized between March 2020 and October 2020 were included. Patient demographics, underlying comorbid illnesses, clinical features, vital signs at admission, disease severity, and laboratory parameters, were collected from hospital medical records and analyzed to derive risk factors for in-hospital mortality and formulate a mortality prediction score. Results: The median age of the study population was 56 years (interquartile range [IQR], 45-65) and was significantly higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (62 [IQR 55-70] vs. 52 [IQR 40-65];P = 0.001). Hypertension and diabetes were the most common associated comorbid illnesses seen in 50.5% (n = 518) and 29.1% (n = 299) of patients, respectively. The presence of altered level of consciousness (C), azotemia with serum creatinine >1.5 mg/dl (A), respiratory rate >25/min (R), interleukin-6 >25 pg/ml (I), and age >= 65 years were independent predictors of mortality. A six-point COVID-19 mortality prediction score, "CARI-65," was developed using variables predicting mortality in multivariate regression analysis. The CARI-65 score >= 3 had a sensitivity and specificity of 87.1% and 57.3%, respectively, and positive and negative predictive values of 42.52% and 92.45%, respectively, in predicting mortality. Conclusion: This study demonstrated various demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters that predict mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We also proposed a simple risk stratification score to predict mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, so that effective triaging of patients can be done to utilize health-care resources efficiently.

Knowledge and Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in People With Severe Mental Illness in Bangladesh and Pakistan: A Cross-Sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illnesses (SMIs) are likely to face disproportionate challenges during a pandemic. They may not receive or be able to respond to public health messages to prevent infection or to limit its spread. Additionally, they may be more severely affected, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We conducted a telephone survey (May-June 2020) in a sample of 1,299 people with SMI who had attended national mental health institutes in Bangladesh and Pakistan before the pandemic. We collected information on top worries, socioeconomic impact of the pandemic, knowledge of COVID-19 (symptoms, prevention), and prevention-related practices (social distancing, hygiene). We explored the predictive value of socio-demographic and health-related variables for relative levels of COVID-19 knowledge and practice using regularized logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Mass media were the major source of information about COVID-19. Finances, employment, and physical health were the most frequently mentioned concerns. Overall, participants reported good knowledge and following advice. In Bangladesh, being female and higher levels of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) predicted poor and better knowledge, respectively, while in Pakistan being female predicted better knowledge. Receiving information from television predicted better knowledge in both countries. In Bangladesh, being female, accessing information from multiple media sources, and better HRQoL predicted better practice. In Pakistan, poorer knowledge of COVID-19 prevention measures predicted poorer practice. CONCLUSION: Our paper adds to the literature on people living with SMIs and their knowledge and practices relevant to COVID-19 prevention. Our results emphasize the importance of access to mass and social media for the dissemination of advice and that the likely gendered uptake of both knowledge and practice requires further attention.

Humoral and cellular immune response against SARS-CoV-2 variants following heterologous and homologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/BNT162b2 vaccination. (preprint)

Cerebral venous thrombosis was reported as a rare but serious adverse event in young and middle-aged vaccinees following immunization with AstraZenecas ChAdOx1-nCov-19 vaccine. As a consequence, several European governments recommended using this vaccine only in individuals older than 60 years leaving millions of ChAd primed individuals with the decision to either receive a second shot of ChAd or a heterologous boost with mRNA-based vaccines. However, such combinations have not been tested so far. We used Hannover Medical Schools COVID-19 Contact (CoCo) Study cohort of health care professionals (HCP) to monitor ChAd primed immune responses before and three weeks after booster with ChAd or BioNTech/Pfizers BNT162b2. Whilst both vaccines boosted prime-induced immunity, BNT induced significantly higher frequencies of Spike-specific CD4 and CD8 T cells and, in particular, high titers of neutralizing antibodies against the B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and the P.1 variants of concern of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

The psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adults with autism: a survey study across three countries.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported a negative psychological and mental health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This impact is likely to be stronger for people with autism as they are at heightened risk of mental health problems and because the pandemic directly affects social functioning and everyday routines. We therefore examined COVID-19 pandemic-related changes in mental health, the impact of the pandemic on their social life and routines, satisfaction with pandemic-related information and tips, and participants' wishes for guidance. METHODS: We used a mixed-method approach, collecting quantitative and qualitative survey data from adults with and without autism across three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands, and the UK (N = 1044). RESULTS: We found an increase in depression and anxiety symptoms in response to the pandemic for both the non-autism and the autism group, which was greater for adults with autism. Furthermore, adults with autism showed a greater increase in worries about their pets, work, getting medication and food, and their own safety/security. They felt more relieved from social stress, yet experienced the loss of social contact as difficult. Adults with autism also felt more stressed about the loss of routines. Pleasant changes noted by adults with autism were the increase in solidarity and reduced sensory and social overload. Adults with autism frequently reported problems with cancellation of guidance due to the pandemic and expressed their wish for (more) autism-specific information and advice. LIMITATIONS: Our sample is likely to reflect some degree of selection bias, and longitudinal studies are needed to determine long-term effects. CONCLUSIONS: Results highlight the psychological burden of the pandemic on adults with autism and shed light on how to support them during this COVID-19 pandemic, which is especially important now that the pandemic is likely to have a prolonged course. There is a need for accessible, affordable (continued) support from health services. Guidance may focus on the maintenance of a social network, and adjusting routines to the rapid ongoing changes. Finally, we may learn from the COVID-19 pandemic-related changes experienced as pleasant by adults with autism to build a more autism-friendly society post-pandemic.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with covid-19 in children: The spectrum of clinical presentation, myocardial involvement and treatment outcome

Objective: To determine the spectrum of clinical presentation, multisystem involvement and treatment outcome in children with MIS-C. Study Design: A descriptive cohort study Place and Duration of Study: Conducted at The Children's Hospital and Institute of Child Health, Lahore from May 15, 2020 to November 22, 2020. Material and Methods: Children (aged 0-16 years) with features of this new inflammatory syndrome who fulfilled the WHO criteria for MIS-C and required admission to hospital were prospectively identified. Demographic and clinical data were collected from patient records and entered on a predesigned proforma and results were analyzed on SPSS 20. Results: A total of 24 patients were enrolled in the study. Majority were males (17/24, 70%). Mean age of presentation was 7.3 years. Six patients (25%) had a positive PCR for SARS CoV-2 but none of the patients had been symptomatic with classic COVID-19 respiratory symptoms in the 6 weeks prior to admission. Comorbid conditions were present in only 2 patients (8%). SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were positive for 23/24 patients (96%). Despite being clinically unwell, with laboratory evidence of elevated C-reactive protein, ferritin, and D-dimers, no pathological organism was isolated in any of the 24 children. There were two major presentations: one as atypical or typical Kawasaki disease (18 of 24, 75%) and a more severe second one with shock or low cardiac output (6 of 24, 25%). Common presenting features were fever, body aches, and abdominal pain. Four out of 24 (16%) patients had sufficient criteria for typical Kawasaki disease, whereas 18 children (75%) presented more sub acutely with presentation resembling Kawasaki disease;all had at least two features of classic Kawasaki. Myocardial dysfunction seen in 3 patients (12%) and pericardial effusion was observed in 5 patients (20%). Coronary artery dilatation was seen in 12 (50%) patients. All 6 children with shock-like presentation had coronary artery involvement. Twenty children (83%) received intravenous immunoglobulin within the first 2 days of their stay. Thirteen (54%) patients received therapeutic anticoagulation (enoxaparin) on the basis of the high risk of thromboembolism and number of D-dimers. There was one death (4%). Conclusion: The SARS-COV 19 pandemic led to the identification of a new and potentially life-threating childhood disease, referred to as MIS-C. Prompt diagnosis and early treatment with IVIGs has shown a good early outcome. .

Socioeconomic Disparities in Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Eliminating disparities in the burden of COVID-19 requires equitable access to control measures across socio-economic groups. Limited research on socio-economic differences in mobility hampers our ability to understand whether inequalities in social distancing are occurring during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess how mobility patterns have varied across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify associations with socioeconomic factors of populations. METHODS: We used anonymized mobility data from tens of millions of devices to measure the speed and depth of social distancing at the county level in the United States between February and May 2020, the period during which social distancing was widespread in this country. Using linear mixed models, we assessed the associations between social distancing and socioeconomic variables, including the proportion of people in the population below the poverty level, the proportion of Black people, the proportion of essential workers, and the population density. RESULTS: We found that the speed, depth, and duration of social distancing in the United States are heterogeneous. We particularly show that social distancing is slower and less intense in counties with higher proportions of people below the poverty level and essential workers; in contrast, we show that social distancing is intensely adopted in counties with higher population densities and larger Black populations. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities appear to be associated with the levels of adoption of social distancing, potentially resulting in wide-ranging differences in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in communities across the United States. These inequalities are likely to amplify existing health disparities and must be addressed to ensure the success of ongoing pandemic mitigation efforts.

Socio-economic disparities in social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States (preprint)

Importance: Eliminating disparities in the burden of COVID-19 requires equitable access to control measures across socio-economic groups. Limited research on socio-economic differences in mobility hampers our ability to understand whether inequalities in social distancing are occurring during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Objective: To assess how mobility patterns have varied across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, and identify associations with socio-economic factors of populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: We used anonymized mobility data from tens of millions of devices to measure the speed and depth of social distancing at the county level between February and May 2020. Using linear mixed models, we assessed the associations between social distancing and socio-economic variables, including the proportion of people below the poverty level, the proportion of Black people, the proportion of essential workers, and the population density. Main outcomes and Results: We find that the speed, depth, and duration of social distancing in the United States is heterogeneous. We particularly show that social distancing is slower and less intense in counties with higher proportions of people below the poverty level and essential workers; and in contrast, that social distancing is intense in counties with higher population densities and larger Black populations. Conclusions and relevance: Socio-economic inequalities appear to be associated with the levels of adoption of social distancing, potentially resulting in wide-ranging differences in the impact of COVID-19 in communities across the United States. This is likely to amplify existing health disparities, and needs to be addressed to ensure the success of ongoing pandemic mitigation efforts.

The Future of Academic Journals in a COVID-19 World

Many academics are critical of the current publishing system, but it is difficult to create a better alternative. This review relates to the Sciences and Social Sciences, and discusses the primary purpose of academic journals as providing a seal of approval for perceived quality, impact, significance, and importance. The key issues considered include the role of anonymous refereeing, continuous rather than discrete frequency of publications, avoidance of time wasting, and seeking adventure. Here we give recommendations about the organization of journal articles, the roles of associate editors and referees, measuring the time frame for refereeing submitted articles in days and weeks rather than months and years, encouraging open access internet publishing, emphasizing the continuity of publishing online, academic publishing as a continuous dynamic process, and how to improve research after publication. Citations and functions thereof, such as the journal impact factor and h-index, are the benchmark for evaluating the importance and impact of academic journals and published articles. Even in the very top journals, a high proportion of published articles are never cited, not even by the authors themselves. Top journal publications do not guarantee that published articles will make significant contributions, or that they will ever be highly cited. The COVID-19 world should encourage academics worldwide not only to rethink academic teaching, but also to re-evaluate key issues associated with academic journal publishing in the future.